Event
Supplier price-reset window
Contract schedule · Pass-through lag
Company-specific exposure analysis
From operating exposure to financial impact.
Basis does not need to predict markets better than a hedge fund. It needs to understand what external volatility means for this particular business — then structure the hedge.
Residual exposure overview
See where existing protection stops.*
The work is mapping how an external shock reaches this P&L, not forecasting the market.
Manufacturer
Uncovered operating exposure*
EBITDA at risk
$4.7M↑ 12% vs. prior periodMaterial exposures
6Across market and event risksActions requiring review
3Next review · FridayMargin risk range
Six-month outlookNowAugSepOctNovDec
ExposureTypeExposure at riskDownside scenarioStatus
Import tariff on componentsEvent$6.4M−$1.1M EBITDAReview
Supplier pass-through lagMarket$18.4M−$2.1M EBITDAElevated
Freight vs lane benchmarkMarket$7.8M−$620K cash flowReview
Port disruption before Q4Event$4.2M−$730K cash flowMatch found
EUR / USD pass-through gapMarket$12.2M−$860K cash flowMonitored
1.0
Map the exposure
See where risk starts and where it hits.
Connect an external factor to suppliers, contracts, facilities, products and the financial plan. The lineage shows the mismatch, not just the market move.
External factors
Connected to purchasing plans, bills of materials and supplier contracts
Trace selected exposure
Copper exposure path
01Copper cathode
02Motor supplier
03Drive systems
04Gross margin
Forecast spend
$18.4MDownside impact
−$2.1MEBITDA · 6MWhere protection stops
A copper futures hedge covers the benchmark. Supplier reset lag and fixed customer prices still compress margin.2.0
Quantify the impact
Translate residual exposure into margin and cash.
Test operating scenarios against margin, EBITDA and cash flow. The question is what this shock does to this business, given its contracts and timing.
Copper+14%
Power+12%
EUR / USD−5%
Customer demand−2%
Gross margin outlook
16.9%
Financial impact
EBITDA impact−$4.7M
Cash-flow impact−$3.1M
Confidence range± $0.9M
Most of the modeled downside sits in materials and power, amplified by contract lag and fixed customer pricing.
Exposure translation
What this volatility means for the business
Residual exposure view
ElevatedResidual intensityResidual
- Recent realized range
- Above recent years
- Uncovered window
- Unhedged beyond Q3
- Data coverage
- High coverage
Operating dates that matter
Refreshed Today · 8:42 AMAnnouncement
Customer pricing freeze through year-end
Commercial calendar · Margin gap
News signal
Uncovered purchase volume after hedge horizon
Purchasing plan · Residual exposure
Company-specific translation
The residual is not the exchange price alone. Supplier reset lag and fixed customer pricing convert a conventional copper move into margin compression for this manufacturer.3.0
Structure the hedge
Start with the business risk, then the instrument.
Compare available hedges against the same residual. The right hedge is the one that fits the exposure.
Available responses
Selected response
Copper futures hedge
Layered futures reduce the benchmark price move. Grade differentials and purchases beyond the hedge horizon remain as residual margin risk.
Exposure covered68%
Estimated cost$210K
Time to implement2 weeks
Basis riskMedium
Estimated downside offset$1.42M
Partner routing
If a financial instrument is the right answer, Basis can identify available liquidity and route it to an execution partner. This workflow is planned and is not currently available.4.0
Track the hedge
Know what the hedge did.
Follow P&L, downside offset, cost and residual slippage — including the portion that a standard instrument never covered.
Net hedge P&L+$418K6M
Realized P&L+$176K
Unrealized P&L+$242K
Hedge costs$128K
Modeled downside offset$1.06M
Hedge positions
Portfolio performance
Loss and hedge offset
Operating lossHedge offset
Gross operating loss−$1.49M
Modeled downside offset$1.06M
Position impact · Copper futures
Layered copper futures offset most of the modeled raw-material increase, with residual exposure driven by grade differentials and purchases beyond the hedge horizon.